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排名2020-21类的前50毫升免费代理商

There may not be any Gerrit Coles in this year’s group of free agents, but these players could still have an outsized impact in the 2021 season and beyond

盖蒂图像/铃声图188金宝博备用

False dawns don’t get much more false than baseball’s 2019-20 offseason. After a multiyear capital strike that threatened to toss MLB into its first protracted labor war in more than 20 years, an exceptional free agent crop pried open owners’ purses and enriched some of the game’s biggest stars. Business as usual.

Then, the COVID-19 pandemic shuttered commerce and travel for … well, eight months and counting. As a result, baseball’s schedule, rules, and financial future were tossed into chaos, as the global economy was shaken to its very core.

Even though the rich-enough-to-own-an-MLB-team class was pretty much the only sliver of society不是受到大流行的危险,大多数MLB的特许经营者将这种不确定性的时刻作为休假和缩小尺寸的机会。无论是否需要支出回滚,它们都发生了,正如Charlie Morton的相对便宜的选择所证明的是上周被拒绝的表现所下降。All signs point to this season unfolding like a lava flow: slowly, destructively, and in a manner that resets the sport’s landscape.

尽管如此,今年的自由代理商会签署somewhere,所以我不仅要排序,还要将它们打入层,正如我去年的那样。每个玩家对每个团队都有不同的价值,但如果俱乐部正在寻找短程,或者是一名退伍军人中转启动器,这里有他们的选择。

我:经济衰退的双向星星

1. J.T.Realmuto,C.
2. George Springer, OF

这看起来像一个非常深入的自由代理课程,就优质的球员而言,但它在过去的两个外部驱动中主导了话语的顶端超级明星非常轻盈。我的顶级自由代理人真正的免费代理商与去年的顶级免费代理捕手,Yasmani Grandal相当。(我的雄伟比他的运动能力和全面防守的力量高于古老,但它足够接近,比较仍然有用。)我曾经是去年的朗格拉。5个免费代理人,比大多数人在他身上可能更高。

没有Gerrit Cole,Anthony Rendon,或今年Stephen Strasburg,Realmuto是最有可能的球员,以便在家中带回家。这不仅是因为他是市场上最好的球员,而是因为没有其他任何方法可以获得捕手与真正的双向实力。

捕手对捕手的要求是如此庞大的是,大多数MLB球队 - 甚至是好的人才愿意忍受严重的妥协,以便获得一个人something出色地。例如:光线使其成为世界系列的第6场比赛,同时达到Mike Zunino的第6个.147 Batting平均水平,因为他是一个特殊的后卫,可以在他接触的那些罕见的场合击中电力。Realmuto没有妥协,并且在贸易市场上没有相同的玩家。然后是真正的事实是留下一个团队ought to be highly motivated保持他。菲利斯等待太长时间才能锁定realmuto,现在面临失去最佳全面球员之一的前景。他们的竞争对手,包括新斧头的大都会,知道这一点,并可以利用这一竞标战争。

至于Springe188金宝博备用r,这令人奇怪地说,前世界系列MVP和三次全明星被低估,但他是。Sp188金宝博备用ringer自2015年以来击中了.274 / .363 / .494,适用于132份的OPS + - 在球员中排名第13至少有3000个板式外观over that time period. Among players who are expected to spend most of the 2021 season in the outfield, he trails only Mike Trout, Bryce Harper, Christian Yelich, and Mookie Betts.

在31岁时,在合同期间,S188金宝博备用pringer可能不是中心远景,但他的蝙蝠和手臂足以让他向右滑到右领域并留下冲击球员。He doesn’t have the kind of MVP-level upside that Harper and Manny Machado presented two years ago, or what Betts would have brought to the table if he hadn’t signed his extension, but four or five years from now we’ll get to the end of Springer’s contract and marvel at what a bargain it was.


二世:绝对是好的,也许是一个明星

3. Trevor Bauer, RHP
4. DJ Lemahieu,INF
5. Marcell Ozuna
6.查理莫顿,rhp

如果Bauer最终与任何自由球员的最富裕的合同结束了这个休赛期,那么我就不会丝毫会让我感到惊讶。在缩短的2020次活动中,他在时代领导了NL,并且每个局部允许比专业中的任何起动器更少的命中。更不用说他的东西一直是ace-calibre或靠近它。但我有挥之不去的问题,而不仅仅是关于松油,或他的sometimes grotesque off-field behavior但是关于他2020个数字的高股率和低口阶的角色有多大。根据市场的震动方式,智能戏剧可能是在较短的交易中尝试抓住莫尔顿或Masahiro Tanaka,而不是在一个不在那个小菜或斯特拉斯堡蒂的投手上捆绑一大吨钱。

Then there’s an even bigger Bauer-related question, which concerns a 2018 interview in which鲍尔说he’d sign only one-year deals in free agency. In fact, he said he’d made a deal with a friend that would entitle said friend to shoot the ex-Reds right-hander in the crotch with a paintball gun if he ever signed a multiyear contract. As a rule, top free agents tend to sign longer deals for less annual money than they’re worth in their prime; this protects players against risk of injury or decline, and since you’d have to be a Bond villain to spend even $100 million in one lifetime, most players are on board. But a player who’s willing to accept more risk could maximize his earnings by going year-to-year, as Bauer suggested. Two weeks ago,Bauer’s agent walked back一年的合同索赔。

但朋友呢?Bauer是否已被释放,或者他只是接受了一些事实,即在鲍尔展示了五年的合约中,通过他的车库里拿出了一些家伙,通过他的车库进行了翻找的东西?我们需要答案。

至于这一层的其余部分:Lemahieu和Ozuna是今年棒球的两个最佳击球手,并且都大写短期制造合同(奥扎纳为期一年的一年,lemahieu为期两年的交易)。特别是lemahieu尤其会感兴趣,因为他能够与Shortstop除外的每个infield位置,而Ozuna在除外的任何地方都在防守。

Morton has been vocal abouthis ambivalence toward playing in 2021;如果正确的情况和薪水不呈现自己,右撇子可能会呼叫它可以退出它。但即使在一个小肩部伤害缩短2020季后,也看起来很愚蠢,不锻炼莫顿1500万美元的选择。自2017年常规季节以来,莫顿既有效又耐用,在季后赛中接近不稳定;自2017年以来,在四个获胜者 - 所有游戏中,莫顿是4-0,并在19个2/3局中允许一个赢得了19个三振出局的竞选。他是一个理想的短期,高平均年度值,作为高天花板没有。3起鹤在休斯顿,或者作为一名才华横溢的工作人员的资深人士,因为他在坦帕湾。

Tier III: Shortstops

7. Marcus Semien,SS
8. Didi Gregorius, SS
9. Ha-seong Kim, SS

If Semien had gone on the market last year, he could have sold himself as an elite defensive shortstop who combined 30-homer power with a strikeout rate of just 13.7 percent. That combination of skills would have put him in the Realmuto tier in this class. In 2020, however, the former MVP finalist’s offense regressed to league-average levels as he battled through a core muscle injury. If he believes that injury was the sole cause of his 200-point drop in OPS from 2019 to 2020, he could take a one-year deal and cash in, as Ozuna did last year and Josh Donaldson and Grandal did the year before. If not—and at age 30 and with just $15.8 million in career earnings, it’s easy to understand why he’d want to avoid risk—Semien could be in for a longer deal on a lower AAV.

Gregorius错过了2019年上半年,同时从Tommy John手术中恢复并返回找到睡在床上的Gleyber Torres,吃粥。在进行一年后重建他的价值,在另一个自由代理活动之前,Gregorius命中.284 / .339 / .488,10个家庭运行,并成为费城最喜欢的费城,因为他将在他签名的任何地方这个冬天。支付男人。

Kim is the cream of the international crop, and since he’s still a member of the KBO’s Kiwoom Heroes, he’s not a free agent in the strictest definition of the term. But he can be had for cash alone, so he’s included here. There’s an inherent risk when players transition from the KBO to MLB, but at age 25, Kim is five years younger than the other top position players in this class. If he can make the leap, he could be an above-average shortstop or better for the next decade. TheZiPS projection system在明年的MLB中,Kim铅笔在MLB中达到了.274 / .343 / .477,并留在2025年的那一级;如果发生这种情况,它会使他几乎完全是那种击球手的垃圾花费是健康的。Kim与他的老年同时代人不同的方式有危险,但可能不是绝对术语的风险。

第四级:退伍军人园丁

10. Justin Turner,3B
11.纳尔逊克鲁斯,德夫
12.迈克尔布兰特利

In other words, old dudes who rake. Turner’s他在世界系列中的积极Covid试验后的行为makes him look like a tool, but unfortunately most MLB players probably would have done the same thing. It also does not change the fact that even after his age-35 season, Turner absolutely shreds opposing pitching. Cruz turned 40 this past July, but if you prorate his numbers over 162 games, this would have been his seventh straight season with at least 37 home runs and 89 walks. He’s a middle-of-the-order hitter until he proves otherwise.

Ultimately, both of these free agents have a good thing going with their respective teams, as both the Dodgers and Twins should be back in the playoffs for the foreseeable future. And neither team has any pressing need to move on from their current lineups—unless, of course, anything ever comes of thoseFrancisco Lindor trade rumors。因此,智能金钱在2021年的特纳和Cruz留下来。

33,称他“老”,但he’s a known quantity in the same mold as Turner and Cruz. An injury-plagued 2016 and 2017 notwithstanding, you’d be hard-pressed to find a more consistent player in all of baseball. After years of watching Brantley hit about .300/.360/.460 for Cleveland, Houston turned to the first-time free agent two winters ago and said, “How about we give you $16 million a year over two years for you to come do that for us?” And sure enough, in two seasons with the Astros, Brantley hit .309/.370/.497. Any team with designs on a playoff berth and a hole in left field should call Brantley up and offer him the exact same deal.

v:为那些对低调奢侈感兴趣的人开始投手

13. Marcus Stroman,RHP
14. Masahiro Tanaka, RHP
15. Jake Odorizzi,RHP
16. José Quintana, LHP

这些是投手的迈克尔布兰特。在2019年出色但在2020赛季中选择了突出的世界,是接受合格提议的两个球员之一,并应考虑接受它。他在2019年太棒了,但很难想象一个九个数字交易在这一气候下的道路 - 而且垒球会很少会遇到与固体2021的那种合同倾向。

Tanaka has been a strong no. 2 or no. 3 starter throughout his MLB career despite pitching the past few seasons through a partially torn UCL; for that reason, plus the fact that he always seems just short of ace quality in strikeouts and innings, another seven-year, $155 million contract is unlikely. But he should be the next call for any team that’s priced out of Bauer and unable to sign Morton.

Odorizzi和Quintana既由于伤害而基本上都错过了2020年,但它们从同一种大容量,中三角布那么广泛地切割为Troman和Tanaka。因为那些受伤,葡萄酒和唐马斯的伤势较高,我会期待Odorizzi和Quintana在冬天后来签名,而且较少。它们是稳定的中转启动,但不是竞争团队的大型自由代理人的类型将在早期战斗。

Tier VI: Starting Pitchers, for Those Who Want to Ride the Lightning

17. James Paxton,LHP
18. Kevin Gausman,Rhp

I have an ongoing feud with188金宝博备用同事Zach Kram-谁非常罕有是错误的,因此不是一个善良的人,以便在帕克斯顿实际上是好的。Kram认为大枫树是一个王牌的起始投手,当他健康时,我争辩说如果他是一个王牌,那就没关系,因为他从不健康。我在Garrett Richards中拥有太多的股票,如果他是健康的公司来完全折扣Paxton,那么如果他的健康公司赢得了一个Cy Young,但他本周拒绝32次,并且从未有资格获得ERA标题。如果他可以在每年七个数字的高七个数字中获得两年的交易,他是一个讨价还价,但我们现在应该比现在在他周围的轮换更好。

这个休赛期,有六名接受合格优惠的球员:其中包括我的前四大鲍尔,斯普林克,realmuto和lemahieu。188金宝博备用Stroman还获得了一个,并在2019年鉴于他的表现,我会理解任何以为我被拒绝的人在十分之外对他排名。然后有Gausman。

煤气男子在2020年的巨人开始时很棒,具有出色的底层数字,表明可能是前者。4整体选择最终将事物放在一起。给我暂停的是,去年Gausman对凯尔吉布森的情况相似的情况。吉布森基于外围设备和STATCAST号码的游侠有三年的交易,而且结果不仅在2020年追赶,他们向后走了。Gausman的结果和Dra--一年前的吉布森比Gibson更好,但我仍然谨慎在一名投手上购买高速公主的投手,但随后可靠地倒回现实。

Tier VII: Relievers Worth Paying Extra For

19.利亚姆亨德里克斯,RHP
20. Brad Hand, LHP

有理由不相信这两个人,从亨德里克斯的巨大季后赛工作量到手的速度下降。但在一个Religers在瞬间失去它的世界里,这些是市场上最可靠的牛棚。如果坦帕湾可以在一个精英救援人员上失去世界系列,那么每个团队都可以使用另一个救济王牌。

Tier IX: Platoon Hitters Who Could End Up Starting Full Time

21. Joc Pederson, OF
22. Tommy La Stella,INF
23. James McCann, C

We almost got to see Pederson outside of his pseudo-platoon role with the Dodgers this year thanks to a last-minute appendage to the Mookie Betts trade tree, but the part of the deal that would’ve sent him and Ross Stripling to Anaheim fell through. Should Pederson leave Los Angeles, his new team will have to figure out how to best deploy a player that has a career .849 OPS against right-handed pitching but hits just .191/.266/.310 against lefties. La Stella is an infielder and his platoon split isn’t quite as bad as Pederson’s, but otherwise he’s the same player.

麦肯是市场上的最佳捕手,而不是真实的,但下降是陡峭的。2019年,麦肯制成全明星团队与白袜队,由外出和签署古老回应。土地麦肯的团队将获得一个坚实的障碍物,但将花费他的保管,他的国防和排拆闻 - 这可能只是加强了重剑的重要性。

第八段:可能不会击中的中间防守巫师

24. andrelton simmons,ss
25.杰克布拉德利,Jr.,CF
26. Kolten Wong,2B
27. Yadier Molina, C

不是每一阵容都可以提供手套第一位置播放器,特别是在捕手以外的位置,但在过去的五到七年中,席梦思和布拉德利已经证明了他们的防御性能。虽然我们将防守等同于速度,但介绍和布拉德利都没有加上跑步者,而是依靠他们的智慧,阅读球的能力,以及强大的投掷武器召唤出来。

两者也偶尔也是加上冒犯的贡献者,但这在任何一种情况下都没有被困扰超过一个季节或两个时间。西蒙斯可以击中.290,永远不会罢工,或者他可以击中.250没有力量,从不走路。布拉德利可以耐心和力量击中.270,或者他可以击中.220并击中165次。这是两个玩家的风险,这就是为什么他们在这个名单上的20多岁。

As a second baseman, Wong doesn’t represent the same kind of defensive value as a shortstop or center fielder, but he’s an outstanding defender and just a year removed from hitting .285/.361/.423 with 24 stolen bases and grabbing a few down-ballot MVP votes. He won’t be a fit everywhere, but on a team with an opening at second and a deep lineup that doesn’t necessarily need him to hit, he could be a tempting target.

As far as Molina, I know better than to, say,promise to walk to St. Louis if he leaves,但他不是离开圣路易斯。

Tier IX:名为Trevor的Religers

28. Trevor Rosenthal,RHP
29. Trevor May, RHP

Padres和Twins的近距离是休赛期的工作。Rosenthal从2019年噩梦中反弹回到2020年的1.90时代,而双胞胎可能录得高K / 9比例为14.7。他还在他的业余时间 - 他在未成年人的改变自我是dj heybeef.- 为他的新团队中的击败作家提供了好消息,他们将需要在下次春季培训的人类兴趣故事。

X:其余的起始投手

30. Garrett Richards,RHP
31.亚当·韦特克,RHP
32. Corey Kluber,RHP
33.太生沃克,RHP
34. J.A. Happ, LHP
35. Cole Hamels, LHP
36. Jon Lester, LHP
37. Mike Minor, LHP
38. Robbie Ray,LHP
39. Mike Leake, RHP

The truncated 2020 season left behind an unusually large crop of pitchers who are coming off injury or some other misfortune, which means that this section of the list—ordinarily composed of Sacrifices to the Innings God—contains plenty of pitchers with long track records, upside, or both.

即使在这一层之外,也有很多投手不会排名前49名列表克里斯··克里斯克,里克佩尔卡洛,Jake Arieta,Martin Perez - 但有足够的最近的成功,而不是比街上的那个人更兴趣。这为这一休赛期提出了一个有趣的子图:启动投手的音乐椅惯例。除了洞穴的竞争者填补他们的旋转之外,洋基队正在让三名初学者走路,蓝色杰伊四,幼崽二,红二。看到哪个团队让老,伤害或中间初学者只能在不同的地方结束同一个旋转木马,这将是令人着迷的。

xi:最后一组职位玩家,他们可以在一个好团队中发挥重要作用

40. Enrique Hernández, UTIL
41. jurickson profar,util
42.CésarHernández,2B
43. Carlos Santana, 1B
44.布拉德米勒,伊利特
45. Robbie Grossman, OF

41个活跃的大联盟的球员(42 in this search, including the just-retired Francisco Cervelli) with at least 2,500 big league plate appearances and a career OBP of .350 or better. Try to name as many as you can without looking up the answers. How many guesses would you have needed in order to get to César Hernández and Robbie Grossman? That’s how far out of mind these players tend to be, but even total afterthoughts who do one or two things well can turn into a cog on a winning team. As evidence—or at least a really fortuitous coincidence—all six of these players took part in this past postseason.

XII:值得乘坐传单的救济投手

46. Blake Tereinen,RHP
47.柯比yates,rhp
48. AlexColomé,RHP
49. Mark Melancon, RHP
50. Jeremy Jeffress,RHP

有理由不喜欢这个层次的每个投手 - 以及包括Shane Greene,Greg Holland等的隐含的非排名层。但是,在2020年的季后赛球队的高度杠杆局的不列颠哥伦琴,科伦派,和杰弗斯特别出现了。耶茨也是如此,但两年后作为棒球的最佳单架闭路之一,他的竞选被骨折被击碎了他的肘部。这是一个经验丰富的解脱器的买方市场,除非较重的巨额趋势较重的牛棚使用逆转自己,除非逆转自己,除非在这样的武器中从未如此过于股票。

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